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We use our newsletters to share new research and new ideas with the research community. Issues include white papers on a variety of subjects, notes on recent TRC studies, highlights from our TRC blog, and announcements about upcoming TRC conferences and services. Check out past issues, or sign up to receive new ones.

 

November 2009


Conference News
(Almost) as good as being there. TRC's latest market research conference was a great place for practitioners and academics to meet and exchange ideas about financial linkage, social networks, and preference measurement. Speakers from Wharton and Columbia joined TRC's own Rajan Sambandam in presenting research and leading discussions. You can view a summary of their presentations here. Hope to see you at our next event!

R² (Our CEO, Rich Raquet, on Research)
A dinosaur's weight; market researchers' fate? Marketers ask researchers to find insights. But they also trust us to know when these gems are relevant and real. A recent article on the perils of calculating the weight of dinosaurs got Rich thinking about our own market research perils, and steps we can take to avoid what are often simple "data-driven" mistakes. Don't be a research dinosaur... read this article! And be sure to let Rich know what other best practices you recommend.

Insightology
The "what the hell" effect," aka "the money made me do it!" Or so it would seem sometimes when it comes to our spending. Researchers have demonstrated how our buying behaviors change depending on how much (and what kind) of money we have in our pocket, and Insightology highlights this work here.

Also, are you Hot or Not? And what lessons can the answer to this question teach us about attractiveness, dating, and human nature? See what happened when academics got their hands on data from Hot or Not.com.

Practitioners' place
TRC's survey of researchers reveals concerns about benchmarking. And those concerns grow stronger the longer they've worked in the field. This and other findings emerged from TRC's study of market researchers designed to explore how, when, and why practitioners use benchmarking. It's information you can use to make better use of norms and benchmarks moving forward - read more about it here.




What does a dinosaur’s weight tell us about being good researchers?

Ever wondered how paleontologists know what a dinosaur weighs? OK, me neither, but an article I read in The Economist points to mistakes in past methods and I believe understanding these mistakes can teach us a lot about how to be better researchers.

A dinosaur’s weight is estimated by taking the bone structure and weight of existing animals and then through linear regression predicting the weight of dinosaurs using only their bone structures. For example, a Brontosaurus (technically called an Apatosaurus, but I learned my dinosaur names watching The Flintstones) is estimated to weigh about as much as seven African elephants.

Dr. Gary Packard of Colorado State University wondered how well these equations would do at predicting the weight of living animals. In essence, he pretended we don’t know how much an elephant weighs. He took the weight and bone structure of smaller animals and then used a linear regression to predict an elephant’s weight using only its bone structure. The result was 50% more than an elephant weighs.

Dr. Packard then created a nonlinear regression model which far more accurately predicted the weight of large animals based only on their bone structure. This same formula would predict that a Brontosaurus would weigh the equivalent of only three African elephants…almost four elephants less than was previously estimated.

While Paleontology and market research are clearly unrelated fields, this example does point out some things that we, as researchers, should keep in mind so we can avoid our own “four elephant” mistakes.

Just as Paleontologists had to extrapolate, we often have to extrapolate. Whether that means stretching a conjoint simulator to the limit or predicting take rates at price points beyond those tested, we need to be as vigilant as Dr. Packard to ensure that the answers are as accurate as they possibly can be. For example, he essentially used the elephant as a hold out sample to test his results. We should be making more frequent and better use of hold out samples to separate good results from data mining run amuck.

We often evaluate data using linear regressions…the same linear regressions that overstated dinosaurs’ weight. For this to be correct, we have to assume that the relationship between the attributes rated and say brand perception is linear. So let’s say an airline has a great safety record and they give passengers fresh baked cookies during the flight. A linear regression would assume that an airline’s safety record and the cookies could have positive and a negative impact on brand perception. I don’t think that makes logical sense. Most people have an expectation that the airline will get us home safely so they won’t reward an airline for doing so...though they will punish an airline when the perception of safety is lost. Conversely, most people probably don’t think worse of an airline that doesn’t provide cookies, though they’d think better of one that does. In short, both of these relationships are probably asymmetrical. As with weighing dinosaurs we need to use a non-linear method to truly understand the data

Linear thinking would also have us assume that the improvement in customer experience necessary to move someone’s perception from a 5 to 6 is identical to what it takes to move from a 9 to a 10. Does that make any sense? Dr. Vikas Mittal of Rice University recently compared the two and showed clear differences with regards to actual repurchase behavior as compared to stated intent.

Finally, we should always put our data in context so that those applying it know how much confidence to put in it. For all of his vigilance Dr. Packard’s methods may not be more accurate than those used in the past. What if the weight structure of Dinosaurs is completely different than any animals alive today? Until Jurassic Park opens, we won’t really know for sure.

We’d all do well to keep these lessons in mind. If we do, and you had to know this was coming, then market researchers can avoid the dinosaur’s fate.


Quirk’s article on Asymmetry:
Vikas Mittal and Wagner Kamakura (2001),Satisfaction, Repurchase Intent and Repurchase Behavior:
Investigating the Moderating Effect of Customer Characteristics, Journal of Marketing Research, (Feb)




Survey of Researchers Reveals Concerns about Benchmarking

By Jennifer Van de Meulebroecke & Michele Sims

Benchmarking results against the competition has clear benefits…from simply understanding where you rank to understanding how the competition achieves the success they do. Yet a survey of researchers indicates that many view benchmarks with skepticism. Understanding how to evaluate benchmarks, and when to question your results, is critical to making informed strategic and tactical bench_q1decisions.

Why benchmark?

As marketing researchers designing and undertaking custom quantitative projects, clients increasingly need to provide external context for their research results, particularly against "benchmarking" or "normative" data.

For some industries, these comparisons are made easy by industry surveys as CAHPS® (Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems), syndicated data sources or published survey results. Yet not all industries have such surveys, and in many cases existing benchmark data are not easily compared to a custom survey.

Exploring benchmarking

TRC sought to understand how researchers view benchmarking in an effort to provide some guidance on how to use it. We reached out via an online survey to 97 research buyers and users in the spring of 2009. First, some background: all 97 are involved in market research at their organization; 83 have a designated market research function. They represent various industries, but have the highest concentrations in insurance, utilities, high tech, healthcare and financial services.

bench_f1Nearly all have used benchmarking data in their current job. Most collected this data as part of the study they were conducting, for example, collecting competitive ratings alongside customer ratings in a satisfaction survey. Syndicated data or collecting data at a different point in time / through another vendor were also used by a majority.

How are researchers using this data?

Over half (51) mention using it to provide context or comparative data against which to measure their own results. As one researcher puts it, "Is 60% sat good? If other companies are at a 40% level, then absolutely. However, if the others are at 90%, not so much." Twenty use the data to help set strategic goals, allocate resources or establish performance targets. Sixteen mention tracking changes or trends over time. There are several mentions of monitoring awareness (advertising, brand) and market forecasting as well. Three researchers admit they are benchmarking primarily because management or internal stakeholders demand it. With the stakes so high, are researchers sure they're getting what they need?

How confident and knowledgeable are researchers about benchmarking?

We then asked researchers to focus specifically on benchmarking data collected outside the primary study (what we'll call "external" benchmarking data). We asked them to rate both their understanding of how external benchmarking data are collected, managed and reported, and their confidence in making comparisons to this type of data. We found bench_q2something unexpected: The longer they've been in research, the less trust researchers have making comparisons to external benchmarking data.

bench_f2Yet understanding of benchmarking data does increase with tenure in the business. We would expect confidence to increase with understanding, but instead the more critical - or more cynical - we become.

So does that mean you shouldn't trust external data sources? Of course not. But it does mean you should approach their use with caution.

What should you be mindful of in making benchmarking comparisons?

According to our surveyed researchers, the foremost of these is questionnaire consistency. (See Fig 3)

  • Having consistent scales or answer categories is the most important consideration regardless of tenure.
  • Question wording is also critical to maintain comparability.

bench_f3

Data collection methodology is also highly relevant.

  • Ensuring the same methodology is used (web vs. phone, for example) is important to two-thirds of researchers.
  • Field period - or making sure the timing overlaps - is less critical.

To the extent that these items are consistent between your data and the external data, there is no question that making these comparisons is of great value. But what are the ramifications if these items don't align?

Question text, scale and response category differences can be difficult to overcome. We've had a lot of experience converting data collected with one scale to match a new scale.Making those comparisons becomes even trickier in combination with other differences such as question wording or data collection timing.

Also bear in mind how missing data (don't know, not applicable, refused) are handled in both studies - scale conversion won't overcome a fundamental difference in the way the data are reported.

bench_q3

This way you can match the question wording and scales to the normative data. Barring that, designate a subgroup of sample to administer the key questions to match the syndicated data.

If the screening or sampling criteria are different, there isn't a lot you can do to overcome those differences. But there are a few options to bring value:

  • The most important thing to do is to recognize whether differences exist. If you are comparing your product's buyers to buyers of the category in general, ask questions about how those buyers were screened (Recent buyers - how recent? First purchase or repeat only? Adult only or adult and teen? US only or international?) Understand the "universe" to make informed decisions.
  • Next, consider filtering your own data to match that of the benchmarking data. Suppose you want to compare consumers in your footprint to normative data, but the normative data was only collected in a sub-region of your footprint. Filter your own data to match. You won't get a total market view, but you will have comparative data for specific regions.
  • Similarly, if the provider of the benchmarking data can cut their data in different ways, you may be able to filter their data to match your own.

Finally, other methodological disparities, such as field period timing, data collection methodology, or sponsorship identification, also impact comparability of data sets. Our experience tells us that changing from non-identified to identified sponsor not only can increase survey response rate but also have a positive impact on the ratings. Competitive ratings collected with a blind or neutral sponsor can suffer in comparison. And asking competitor ratings only among your own customers can lead to a skewed view of the competitive landscape.

So what's the bottom line?

Dig into the methodology of the benchmarking data, and as much as you can, keep an analytic eye for discrepancies that can mar your comparisons.

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